Canada’s Trudeau headed for another minority in ‘status quo’ election

By Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren and Julie Gordon

MONTREAL/OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on observe to retain energy, tv networks projected on Monday as outcomes trickled in, however appeared set to fall in need of his objective for a majority win.

Trudeau, in energy since 2015 and governing with a minority since 2019, determined to gamble on an early vote and capitalize on his authorities’s dealing with of the pandemic, which included huge spending to help people and companies and pushing for prime vaccination charges.

As a substitute, he’ll find yourself the place he began after an unexpectedly tight election race characterised by a lackluster marketing campaign and voter anger at an election throughout a pandemic.

CBC and CTV mentioned Trudeau’s Liberal authorities would maintain a minority of seats within the Home of Commons.

Elections Canada confirmed the Liberals main in 156 electoral districts nationally, yet another than they held earlier than the election, together with 111 in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec.

“It is a Groundhog Day election,” mentioned Gerald Baier, a professor of political science at College of British Columbia. “It appears that evidently ambivalence has stayed (from the 2019 election).”

Trudeau was slated to talk at 0030 ET (0430 GMT).

The Home of Commons holds 338 seats and a celebration must win 170 to carry a majority. The Conservatives have been in second place, main in 123 districts.

Polls reported outcomes far more slowly than common, with some stations compelled to restrict occupancy because of COVID-19 restrictions. Lengthy traces compelled some electors to attend hours to vote in southern Ontario, a vital battleground.

Solely about one-third of polls in Quebec and Ontario had reported outcomes and solely 5% in British Columbia, one other province with tight races and quite a few seats.

The Canadian greenback strengthened as early outcomes got here in, rising 0.3%.

STATUS QUO

Trudeau, 49, a charismatic progressive and son of former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, swept to energy in 2015. However the Liberals dropped to a minority in 2019 after Trudeau was broken partially by disclosures that he had worn blackface years in the past.

Amid a fourth wave of COVID-19, Trudeau backed vaccine mandates whereas Conservative Chief Erin O’Toole, 48, opposed them, preferring a mix of voluntary vaccinations and fast testing to cease the unfold of the virus.

Trudeau had mentioned he wanted a brand new mandate to make sure Canadians approve of his plan for getting the nation previous the coronavirus pandemic. The Liberals, whose fiscal coverage helps for the pandemic exceed 23% of GDP, plan billions in new spending to help financial restoration if re-elected.

Cambridge World Funds (NYSE:) Chief Strategist Karl Schamotta mentioned the election end result “primarily preserves the established order and ensures that the fiscal spending plans which have supported the financial system for the final yr and half are more likely to proceed.”

A delay in counting mail-in votes might additional maintain up leads to tight races.

Elections Canada is not going to begin counting roughly 800,000 mail-in ballots till Tuesday, after it is ready to confirm them towards in-person votes. These might assist to find out the end result in a minimum of two Atlantic districts and plenty of extra throughout Canada.

A second minority authorities will imply Trudeau’s Liberals must rely once more on opposition events, such because the left-leaning New Democratic Occasion, to cross laws.

“A win’s a win, and time in workplace and energy is while you get to make change,” mentioned John Duffy, a former Liberal adviser.