President Donald Trump’s tariff war is accelerating Beijing’s trade and investment push into developing nations known as the Global South, according to research by S&P Global, potentially creating a new trade order dominated by Chinese firms.
China’s goods exports over the past decade have doubled to nations mostly across Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, compared with growth of 28 per cent to the US and 58 per cent to Western Europe, S&P Global said in a report Tuesday. That trend has accelerated in the five years since Trump’s first term.
The tariff-led push comes while Chinese firms are seeking new markets abroad as the world’s second-largest economy slows, and as its companies seek to carve out manufacturing hubs for goods from electric vehicles to electronics.
“High uncertainties under US tariffs and China’s slowdown will continue to motivate Chinese firms to head to the Global South,” S&P Global’s economists said in the report. “The result could be a new order of global commerce where South–South trade becomes the new centre of gravity and Chinese multinationals emerge as the new key players.”
Economic data last week underscored the pain of US tariffs on China’s economy, with factory activity rising at the slowest rate since November and investment in property and infrastructure falling. Exports to the US slumped in July for a fourth month in figures reported Aug. 7, though shipments to countries in Africa to Southeast Asia more than made up for the dip.
Chinese officials have increasingly sought to bolster relations with developing nations in recent months, reducing trade barriers and signing new trade deals. In June, President Xi Jinping said he would eliminate all import tariffs on almost all African nations, and he has attended summits and held meetings with Latin America and Southeast Asia leaders.
China’s trade with its 20 largest partners in the Global South now makes up on average 20 per cent of those countries’ gross domestic product, according to S&P Global. As well, more than half of China’s total trade surplus is with the Global South, compared with 36 per cent for the US and 23 per cent for Western Europe.
There has been some pushback that Chinese officials will need to navigate, S&P Global noted, including workers and industry groups rallying against cheap imports that are dislocating local industry.
“Despite these risks, high uncertainties under US tariffs and China’s slowdown will continue to motivate Chinese firms to head to the Global South,” its economists wrote in the note.
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Published on August 19, 2025
