NASHVILLE, TN – With China’s soybean demand virtually gone, U.S. soybean growers are faced with the question: Can domestic processing and diversified exports revive prices? The latest figures suggest fertile opportunities—but also a nuanced path ahead.
Current Price and Market Snapshot
As of August 2025, soybean prices hover around $10.33 per bushel on the spot market, slightly up from previous weeks. USDA’s season-average price forecast for 2025/26 remains $10.10 per bushel—unchanged from last month. Farm-level prices are down nearly 12% from last year, with the June average at $10.40/bu, unchanged from May.
Export Pain, Domestic Gain
Export sales for the 2025/26 crop are at a 20-year low, with sluggish bookings hitting just 3.9% of target—one trend analysts warn could persist if new markets don’t materialize. On the bright side, USDA reports a record high in soybean processing: 2.54 billion bushels of soybeans (58% of total U.S. disappearance) are expected to be crushed in 2025/26, driven by a surge in renewable diesel demand. Domestic soybean oil use for biofuels is projected to hit 15.5 billion pounds, accounting for 53% of total oil use.
A Timeline for Price Recovery
Optimists point to expanding processing capacity and rising demand from Southeast Asia, Mexico, and select South Asian and African markets as key to price recovery. USDA data suggest that renewed demand could begin to lift prices by late 2025, with stronger effects in 2026–27, if export diversification gains traction. A more tempered view expects that pressure on prices could persist into 2026 due to strong global competition from Brazil and Argentina, along with dampened demand in China’s absence.
Bottom Line for Growers
With soybean acres at their lowest since 2019 and exports slowing, renewable diesel and crush expansion remain the industry’s strongest long-term support. Diversifying markets—especially to feed-intensive Southeast Asia and growing poultry sectors in South Asia—can help close the Chinese gap. While no single outlet will fully replace China’s demand, a combination of domestic processing and strategic market outreach offers hope for stabilizing and rebuilding price levels—notably, over the next 12–24 months.
