In recent months, United States President Donald Trump has sharply escalated his attacks on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, accusing him of fuelling drug trafficking and driving mass migration from the Caribbean nation into the US.
More recently, Trump has piled increased pressure on Venezuela with a military buildup in the Caribbean Sea, in what he calls an anti-drug trafficking campaign. Caracas says that US actions are instead aimed at toppling Maduro’s government.
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Trump met his national security team on Monday to discuss “next steps” on Venezuela, according to media reports. Washington’s continued deployment of military assets to the region has sparked concerns of a possible war.
Last weekend, Maduro told a crowd outside the presidential Miraflores Palace that he wanted peace with the US, but only on the condition of “sovereignty, equality and freedom … We do not want a slave’s peace, nor the peace of colonies! Colony, never! Slaves, never!”
Is the US about to go to war with Venezuela?
In recent weeks, Trump confirmed that he authorised the CIA to carry out secret operations in Venezuela. In addition, he has deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, thousands of troops, and F-35 military jets to the Caribbean.
On November 20, Trump said that land strikes inside Venezuela could come imminently. However, while some view the president’s comments and operations as a preparation for military action, Trump told reporters last weekend not to “read anything” into his recent moves.
Venezuela has been conducting regular military drills over the past few weeks in preparation for any possible attack.
Why is Trump hostile to Maduro?
Washington’s recent show of force recalls a long history of military interventions across Latin America by successive US governments, often motivated by fear of hostile powers close to US borders.
Since the 1990s, ties between Washington and Caracas have been dominated by tensions linked to Maduro’s left-wing predecessor, Hugo Chavez. The bilateral relationship deteriorated further after Maduro came to power following Chavez’s death in 2013.
In recent months, US military strikes on alleged Venezuelan drug smugglers in the Caribbean have dominated relations.
In July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Maduro of being “the leader of the designated ‘narcoterrorist’ organisation Cartel de los Soles” and responsible for “trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe”. He did not provide evidence to back his claim.
Moreover, experts say Cartel de los Soles is not a cartel.
For his part, Maduro has accused Washington of using the drug offensive as a pretext for orchestrating regime change and seizing Venezuelan oil.
What actions has the Trump administration taken?
The US has amassed 15,000 troops in the region and deployed an aircraft carrier there.
It has also carried out at least 21 strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific since September, killing up to 83 people.
Meanwhile, military experts say assembled US firepower in the Caribbean Sea far outweighs what is necessary for a drug-trafficking operation, while Caracas says the US is seeking regime change to take control of Venezuela’s vast natural resources, including oil.
Last week, a Delaware judge ordered the sale of Venezuelan oil company Citgo – a Houston-based subsidiary of the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA) – to pay off billions of dollars in missed debt repayments.
Venezuela on Tuesday denounced the US-ordered “forced sale” of the oil company, which would rob Venezuela of vital foreign revenue.
Elsewhere, Trump declared that Venezuelan airspace had been “closed” on November 29. His comments followed a warning from the US Federal Aviation Administration about a “potentially hazardous situation” in Venezuelan airspace.
Despite professing to oppose “forever wars”, Trump’s recent moves in Venezuela — including the threat of military strikes — signal a readiness to escalate tensions.
Are the boat strikes legal?
Numerous legal scholars have decried the US strikes in international waters as illegal under both international and domestic law. The US Congress is investigating whether a second attack on an alleged drug boat in September killed survivors of an initial attack. The White House has defended the deadly attack.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the US strikes on alleged boats were “not compatible with international law”. He has expressed his concern about the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela.
Who are Venezuela’s key allies?
Venezuela’s key political allies are unified by a shared resistance to US influence in the region. Russia remains its strongest geopolitical backer, offering military cooperation and diplomatic support. China, which is Venezuela’s number one source of oil exports, also provides economic backing.
Venezuela and Iran also have a deepening bond – sharing an anti-Western worldview and, in the face of sanctions, both seeking alternative economic and diplomatic channels.
In Latin America, Venezuela relies on longstanding ideological allies such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. These governments consistently defend Caracas in regional bodies and maintain close ties through frameworks like ALBA-TCP and Petrocaribe.
Though Brazil and neighbouring Colombia are governed by left-wing governments, they have refused to recognise Maduro’s 2024 re-election. However, they have voiced concerns about the military threats against Venezuela.
Why isn’t Venezuela wealthier?
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels in 2023. But it only exported $4bn worth of crude oil that same year, far below other oil-producing countries, largely due to US sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term.
The country’s oil production is dominated by PDVSA, which has faced challenges including ageing infrastructure, underinvestment, mismanagement and the effects of sanctions, all of which have limited Venezuela’s ability to fully exploit its vast reserves.
According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Venezuela exported just $4.05bn worth of crude oil in 2023. This is far below other major exporters, including Saudi Arabia ($181bn), the US ($125bn), and Russia ($122bn).
Sanctions have also increased the price of imports. The country suffers from goods shortages and rampant inflation – the IMF forecasts it will reach 600 percent next year. The economic crisis, worsened by the US sanctions, has forced millions of people to flee to neighbouring countries in recent years.
In 2024, Venezuela’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $119.8bn, placing it among the smallest economies in Latin America. Venezuela’s economic instability is rooted in years of harsh sanctions, as well as its reliance on oil.
What has the international response been?
On November 30, Maduro called on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to help his country counter the “growing and illegal threats” from the Trump administration.
In a letter to OPEC members, Venezuela’s President Maduro said, “I hope I can count on your best efforts to stop this growing aggression” So far, none of the group’s members have publicly responded.
On November 25, Colombian President Gustavo Petro told CNN that Trump is “not thinking about the democratisation of Venezuela, let alone the narco-trafficking”. He added that only a tiny portion of the global drugs trade flows through the Caribbean country.
What could happen next?
On November 17, when asked about the possibility of deploying US troops on Venezuelan soil, Trump told reporters at the White House, “I don’t rule out that. I don’t rule out anything. We just have to take care of Venezuela.”
Then, on Monday, Reuters reported that Trump offered Maduro safe passage out of Venezuela during a call on November 21. Maduro allegedly told Trump that he was willing to leave Venezuela, provided he and his family members had full legal amnesty.
The Venezuelan president also reportedly requested the removal of sanctions for more than 100 Venezuelan government officials, many accused by the US of human rights abuses, drug trafficking or corruption.
Trump rejected most of his requests on the call, but told Maduro he had a week to leave Venezuela for the destination of his choice alongside his family members. Al Jazeera, however, could not independently verify the report.
