President Donald Trump has announced a potential U.S. ground operation in Venezuela aimed at dismantling drug cartels. American media reported that a B-1 Lancer bomber had flown near Venezuelan airspace — seen as a prelude to such an invasion. However, analysts agree that the operation is highly unlikely to happen for several compelling reasons.
Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Stefaniegbh, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
Flag of Venezuela
Insufficient Resources and Harsh Terrain
Venezuela is a vast country with mountainous jungles and complex terrain. A large-scale invasion and even partial occupation would require hundreds of thousands of troops and immense logistical support. At a time when the U.S. government is under a shutdown and military pay is expected to be delayed from November, such an operation is logistically unrealistic.
Strong Venezuelan Resistance
The Venezuelan Armed Forces remain among the strongest and most motivated in the region. Fighting in urban areas would lead to heavy casualties among U.S. troops, sparking anti-war protests as coffins return home. Quick and decisive victory is seen as impossible under these conditions.
Political Backlash in Washington
Democrats are already outraged by Trump’s attempt to conduct an operation without congressional approval, accusing him of abuse of power and potential war crimes. If Democrats gain ground in midterm elections, this could trigger investigations and legal consequences for the administration.
Public Opposition and Political Risks
Polls show that more than 60% of Americans oppose a military invasion of Venezuela, threatening Trump’s support among his MAGA base. Furthermore, any hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize would vanish — a symbolic but politically significant loss.
International Consequences
The operation would be viewed across Latin America as a gross violation of international law and a return to colonial-era interventionism. U.S. claims about drug cartel activity are misleading, as most narcotics are produced in Colombia and trafficked via the Pacific, not through Venezuela. The true motive behind any invasion, experts say, would be regime change and control over oil resources.
Russia and China Factor
Russia and China are Venezuela’s key allies. A U.S. military attack would likely trigger diplomatic escalation or proxy responses — including arms shipments, volunteer deployments, or moves at the United Nations — increasing the risk of direct confrontation between major powers.
Economic Repercussions
An armed conflict would send global oil prices soaring, worsening U.S. inflation and harming the domestic economy. As President Nicolás Maduro himself put it, he has “nerves of steel” to withstand foreign pressure.
Psychological and Covert Pressure Instead of Invasion
For now, Washington will likely focus on psychological pressure and threats of missile strikes to destabilize the Venezuelan elite. The CIA has been given wide latitude to attempt regime destabilization — a method that succeeded in Iran (1953), Guatemala (1954), and Chile (1973). Yet, unlike those historical cases, turning Venezuela’s military against its civilian leadership is seen as nearly impossible.
Endgame: Negotiation Over Confrontation
In the end, Trump may conclude — or pretend to — that Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s obsession with regime change in Venezuela is a dead end. He may instead give envoy Richard Grenell the green light to return to Caracas to negotiate a “deal.”
