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Abuja, Nigeria – The February 24 invasion of Ukraine by Russia has upset geopolitical and commerce relations the world over, from issues of shopping for army gear to more and more costly wheat and oil.
However for Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, there’s an added dimension given its army relationships with all the foremost actors, particularly Russia.
Traditionally, each international locations have explored areas of defence cooperation and the arms commerce. One of many aspect plots of the longrunning Chilly Conflict period was that in Nigeria’s 30-month-long civil conflict that resulted in 1970, the Soviet Union prolonged army help.
Solely final yr, Abuja signed an settlement with Moscow for the availability of army gear, personnel coaching and expertise switch.
The end result of that deal has change into more and more seen since, given the acquisition and use of Russian-made fight and transport helicopters just like the Mi-35M and Mi-171E, each export variants of the Russian Mi-24 and Mi-8, for army operations in Nigeria.
However since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the good points from the connection could also be eroding.
The West has responded to the disaster with a rollout of deadly army help, together with anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles to NATO international locations close to Ukraine, like Poland. A barrage of sanctions has additionally been directed at people and entities in Russia. On March 24, the US introduced sanctions on a number of companies in Russia’s defence-industrial sector, some whose weapons are getting used within the invasion.
The brand new sanctions and monetary restrictions which align with earlier actions and people taken by the European Union, United Kingdom and Canada, are designed to have a deep and long-lasting impact on the Russian defence sector.
They are going to forestall Russia’s entry to cutting-edge applied sciences and inevitably disrupt provide chains and manufacturing, significantly for focused defence firms similar to Russian Helicopters JSC.
This, in flip, will have an effect on their capability to offer environment friendly upkeep help and extra plane to overseas clients, together with the Nigerian Air Pressure.
The Nigerian army is at present wrestling with persistent home conflicts on a number of fronts together with uprisings within the northeast by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP), banditry within the northwest in addition to more and more violent separatist rebellions within the southeast.
It’s also battling maritime piracy within the Gulf of Guinea, one of many world’s most harmful delivery routes.
With out its Russian arms provide, Nigeria’s firepower will severely lag.
A punctured provide chain
Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter, behind the US.
Between 2017 to 2021, it was notably the most important provider to Africa, accounting for 44 % of imports of main arms to the continent, in keeping with the Stockholm Worldwide Peace Analysis Institute (SIPRI), which tracks the worldwide arms commerce.
Its 2021 report reveals that Nigeria obtained arms from 13 suppliers in the identical five-year interval, together with 272 armoured autos from China, seven fight helicopters from Russia, three fight plane from Pakistan, and 12 gentle fight plane from Brazil by the US.
Over the previous decade, Russian fight and transport rotary plane outfitted with trendy technological programs and sensors have change into an integral ingredient of Nigeria’s bid to increase its Air Pressure’s preventing capabilities.
However the supply of extra models of Mi-35M gunships appropriate for shut air help missions has already been marred by controversy. In 2019, the Nigerian ambassador to Russia hinted at a brick wall within the provide chain – a fallout from pre-existing sanctions.
Two years earlier, the US had signed the Countering America’s Adversaries By Sanctions Act (CAATSA) directed at puncturing the pipeline of arms exports after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, involvement within the Syrian civil conflict and meddling within the 2016 US presidential elections.
In its 2022 funds, the Nigerian authorities has made provisions for periodic depot upkeep and the improve of three older MI helicopters. The Mi-24V and Mi-35P variants are recognized for use by the Air Pressure.
Just a few years in the past, Russian Helicopters JSC launched upgrades for the Mi-35P variant together with an improved goal sight system, digital flight management system and evening imaginative and prescient goggles.
These can be good for Nigeria’s counterinsurgency operations in opposition to more and more subtle armed teams inside and round its borders. However the stream of latest sanctions aimed on the Russian defence sector creates hurdles for Nigeria’s improve plans.
Belarus skilled the AFSF
The sanctions are additionally extending to Russian ally Belarus which continues to offer help for Russia’s assault on Ukraine.
That help might endanger army cooperation between Nigeria and Belarus, which hosted the 2014 coaching of Nigeria’s elite tactical unit, the Armed Forces Particular Forces (AFSF). The AFSF was fashioned as a part of revamping the Nigerian army’s response to the escalating menace from Boko Haram.
There have been rumours of different deliberate deployments however nothing has been confirmed, apart from a go to by the chief of considered one of Nigeria’s civil defence corps and prime officers of the inside ministry to Minsk final August.
Ukrainian tanks, artillery and armoured personnel carriers
The conflict can be draining Ukraine’s army {hardware} manufacturing and export capability and that might damage Nigeria, too.
Between 2014 and 2015, Nigeria acquired army gear from Ukraine together with T-72 tanks, D-30 artillery, and BTR-4EN armoured personnel carriers earlier than more and more turning to China for property.
New markets
All of that might push Abuja in direction of discovering new markets for different helicopters capable of perform related roles as successfully as its Russian ones, requiring new investments to construct technical capability and help infrastructure.
Nonetheless, there may very well be different political hurdles.
Final July, the US bipartisan Senate Overseas Relations Committee halted the proposed sale of 12 AH-1 Cobra assault helicopters and accompanying programs value $875m to Nigeria, amid issues concerning the authorities’s human rights file.
Nigeria’s data minister denied data of the state of affairs however his overseas affairs counterpart, Godfrey Onyeama, was extra forthcoming. “We’ve a slight concern with some assault helicopters, however that’s extra on the legislative aspect and never on the manager aspect,” stated Onyeama throughout a gathering final yr between US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and Nigerian officers in Abuja.
The quick and long-term results of the invasion of Ukraine and the continual movement of sanctions present new alternatives for collaborations with Nigeria, as soon as reputed for its skilled military requirements and willingness to interact in worldwide peacekeeping missions throughout Africa.
For now, that might additionally imply elevated arms commerce with China – the fifth-largest arms exporter globally – given the West’s reluctance, regardless of variations in high quality, operationality and technical help.
In 2019, Basic Stephen Townsend, then a nominee for the place of commander, US Africa Command (AFRICOM), knowledgeable the US Senate Armed Providers Committee that China offered Nigeria with armed unmanned aerial programs to enhance its counterterrorism capabilities, however poor high quality contributed to their rare use.
However the next yr, Nigeria’s air pressure acquired quite a few drones together with the Chinese language Wing Loong II drones which resemble the American MQ-9 Reaper drones. Whereas the MQ-9 Reaper is reported to price $30m, the Wing Loong II prices $1-2m.
These drones are recognized to lack the sophistication and technical capability of their Western counterparts however with out a lot of a alternative, African international locations might quickly flip to them.
China’s comparatively reasonably priced and accessible army {hardware} might simply enchantment to international locations like Nigeria and states throughout the Sahel looking for different markets for property acquisition.
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